Agility Robotics: public via SPAC at $2.5B, raising ~$620M

The claim

Announced June 24, 2026: Agility would go public by merging with Churchill Capital Corp XI at a $2.5 billion valuation, with roughly $620 million in gross proceeds expected, and list on Nasdaq as AGLT.

Claimed Wednesday, June 24, 2026 · TechCrunch, Jun 24, 2026

Caveats baked in at the time

• SPAC proceeds depend on how many trust shareholders redeem before the vote. The $620M assumed low redemptions; the number is not known until the redemption deadline passes.
• The $2.5B valuation is the deal's headline, not a market price. The market sets its own on November 5.

What counts as met

Met if AGLT trades on Nasdaq. The proceeds line resolves separately: on target if gross proceeds land within 10% of $620M, short otherwise. Both are recorded.

Status as of Saturday, November 7, 2026

Met on the listing, short on the proceeds. AGLT opened on Nasdaq November 5 after the merger closed November 4. Gross proceeds were $465 million, 25% under the $620 million claimed in June, after holders of 61% of the trust shares redeemed. The stock closed its second session at $9.90, under the $10 deal price, which puts the 242.1 million shares outstanding at $2.40 billion against the $2.5 billion headline.

Share counts, redemptions and PIPE size from the November 6 Form 8-K; financials from the October 13 prospectus; prices from Nasdaq daily data as carried by Yahoo Finance. No closing balance sheet has been filed; the cash figure in the read below is Servo's estimate.

The read, Saturday, November 7, 2026

AGLT traded on November 5, so the listing line is met. The proceeds line is short: $465 million gross against the $620 million claimed in June, a 25% miss, because holders of 25.45 million of the 41.4 million public shares, 61%, took their $10.29 back rather than hold through the merger. The PIPE held at $201 million; the trust did not.

Two sessions in, the market has not endorsed $2.5 billion. The stock opened at $11.26 on November 5, traded between $8.40 and $12.15, and closed at $11.51 on a day the Nasdaq fell 5.5%. On November 6 it closed at $9.90, under the $10 that PIPE investors paid, with the warrants at $4.12. At $9.90 the 242.1 million shares outstanding are worth $2.40 billion; counting the 61.0 million options and RSUs and 4.2 million warrants, the fully diluted figure is about $3.0 billion. The Series C3 round earlier in 2026 was done at about $2.0 billion post-money, per the prospectus.

The prospectus is the first audited look at the business, and the revenue line is small enough to state in full. Revenue was $310,000 in 2024, $1.78 million in 2025, of which 64% came from related parties, and $174,000 in the first half of 2026, down 72% from the same half of 2025 because 2025 had $0.5 million of one-time robot sales. Cost of goods sold on that $174,000 was $3.9 million, a gross loss of $3.7 million. The half-year net loss was $361.9 million against $71.8 million a year earlier; about $252.5 million of the increase is stock-based compensation, which does not leave the bank. The number that does is operating cash burn: $86.2 million in six months, about $14 million a month and nearly double the prior year's pace, which left $14.7 million of cash at June 30. The going-concern doubt in the filing was not boilerplate. The deal resolved it.

No closing balance sheet has been filed, so the cash position today is arithmetic. Servo's: $14.7 million at June 30, plus the $100 million SAFE round in July, plus $164.1 million from the trust and $201.0 million from the PIPE, minus the $46.1 million of estimated transaction costs, minus four months of burn at the first-half rate, lands near $370 million. At $14 million a month that is a little over two years, before Digit 5 production starts. Under the subscription model Agility keeps the robots on its own balance sheet, and the prospectus puts the bill of materials at about $150,000 per unit at launch, so every thousand Digit 5s deployed on subscription is roughly $150 million of inventory before the first $8,500 monthly fee arrives. The September-quarter 10-Q settles the cash number.

On the ladder, Digit v4 is production at a handful of sites and pilot everywhere else: deployed or committed across nine customer facilities, 65,000 hours accumulated, with Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada and Mercado Libre named in the filing and AGCO in the press release. All of those figures are company-reported. The prospectus never states how many robots are in the field, which, at $174,000 of half-year revenue, cannot be many. Schaeffler appears in the filing as both a strategic investor and a customer. Digit 5, unveiled September 15, carries the $300 million of committed multi-year orders, and the filing's own language is that those orders are contingent on milestones, features and specifications not yet met, with early-access deliveries in 2027.

The filing carries no company-level revenue or profit projections. What the Churchill board and its fairness adviser worked from is a set of per-robot unit economics: a five-year life, $8,500 a month on subscription plus a $25,000 deployment fee, or $200,000 up front plus $36,000 a year for software and service; a bill of materials falling from $150,000 at launch to $75,000 at 1,000 units a year and $30,000 at 10,000; customer breakeven in about 1.1 years; and a path to product gross margins above 70%. Those are management assumptions, unaudited, excluded from the auditors' report by name. The cost curve at 10,000 units a year is a rate no Western humanoid maker has reached.

Dates on the calendar: a resale registration statement is due within 30 days of closing, so by early December, covering the sponsor's and the legacy holders' shares. The lock-up on those shares runs 180 days from November 4, to May 3, 2027. The new incentive plan reserves 51.4 million shares, 13% of the fully diluted count, with a 5% evergreen each January. The September-quarter 10-Q comes before any of that. For the ledger: listing met, proceeds short, and two sessions of trading that priced the company at or below the deal, which is the tape asking for the 10-Q before the story.

Signals since

What would move it

• The September-quarter 10-Q: cash at closing against Servo's ~$370M estimate, and whether a Digit unit count finally appears
• The resale registration statement, due within 30 days of November 4, and the lock-up expiry on May 3, 2027
• Digit 5 early-access deliveries in 2027, and the milestones that have to be met before the $300M of orders turns into revenue